Somalia is too intertwined to federate

By Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad

NAIROBI, Kenya — About several years ago, I was invited to the Somali capital, Mogadishu, to talk about a topic that has recently polarized Somali scholars and ordinary citizens: Federalism.

The theme of the forum, organized by the Somali government and the Arab League, was “Towards the Promotion of a Sense of Pan-Somali Nationalism.”

What whetted my curiosity the most was Somalis’ interest in knowing more about the federal system. Hundreds of people have showed up for my speech entitled “Federalism in the Somali Political System — Justifications and Challenges.”

I could sense the palpable craving among the audience and other Somalis for a system that glues them together, not an arrangement that divides them along regions and clans.

Most —  if not all of the over 300 people who came to listen to my speech — appeared more interested in a strong Somali government that provides justice and applies the rule of law than a token federal system whose initial applications in parts of the country point to potential wars over lands and resources.

Traditionally, as mainly nomadic society, Somalis applied some sort of federalism in their own settings: Clans lived in their own lands, respecting each other’s territory, even when there is no official demarcation separating them. Whenever goats, sheep and camels and cows of a certain clan ventured into the territory of neighboring clans, the animals and their herders were welcomed as respectful guests.

The main bone of contention among Somalis in the past was over the scarce resources of water and pasture, and Somalia’s previous governments, since independence in 1960, had little control over those resources or even over the movement of clans.

The Mogadishu-based governments were deeply interested in the development of the capital city, Mogadishu, and in taking strong foreign policies, especially on issues relating to the country’s territories still occupied by Kenya and Ethiopia.

True, the leaders of past regimes have discriminated against certain regions for purely selfish interests, but the fact is that the pervasive injustices and underdevelopment have touched on every clan and region in the country, including President Siyad Barre’s hometown.

To me, one question Somalis need to ask themselves at this juncture is: Will federalism ever work in their country or will it simply open up a Pandora’s box of more problems that can eventually destroy Somalia?

In its current form, methinks, Somalia can’t afford to have a federal system because to introduce one in a country like Somalia, which is in the grip of security, economic and political crises, is to dismember that country. What the Horn of Africa nation needs now is stability that allows it to resolve its myriad problems and have a strong government that works not for certain regions or clans but for all Somalis.

It is interesting to note that while the Somalis pushing for federalism may have noble intentions of devolving powers and resources to regional governments, the foreign countries who are funding the system — especially the EU, UN as well as the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and Ethiopia — have other intentions, chief among them the frustration of Somalis’ desire for a functioning national government that serves its people and takes charge of its resources.

Kenya and Ethiopia, which initially conspired to try and break up Somalia into mini-states, are now learning their lessons the hard way: That if new nations emerge in Somalia, they too — because of the fragile nature of their countries — will be candidates for disintegration.

The only country that now seems immune to Somalia’s chaos is the United Arab Emirates, which is trying hard to pit regional administrations against the national government. But this attempt too is likely to fizzle out because Somalis will eventually see through Abu Dubai’s conspiracy whose real objective is to prevent them from having a functioning state that can tap its human and natural resources.

These divergent interests between Somalis and foreigners will eventually, in my view, kill the application of the so-called federalism in Somalia. Because although Somalis want more say in the affairs of their regions to address the economic imbalances in the country, they have no intention of having fractured, quarreling mini-states whose policies are dictated by foreign powers.

It is unreasonable to equate Somalia, which has one of the most ethnically homogeneous people in the continent, to other countries with hundreds of tribes and ethnic groupings, with each one vying for a cut from the national cake. Somalia’s main problem is simply the lack of justice and equitable application of the rule of law, not the lack of federalism, and I don’t think anyone in his right mind would ever claim that federalism could automatically solve Somalia’s decades-old problems.

The actions of past governments shouldn’t inspire a push for a federal system, because two wrongs never make a right.

The widespread mistrust between previous, Mogadishu-based administrations and inhabitants of other regions was created after the nation’s leaders failed to deliver services to the people living outside the capital, Mogadishu.

The officials who developed Mogadishu were not born in it. They hailed from the peripheries, and it was the clan-based warlords — not past governments – who drove other clans from their homes to try and create new realities.

The countries that introduced the federal system barely offer good examples for justice to emulate: Selfish politicians, like Somalia’s warlords, have utilized the federal system for their own interests. Out of the 54 African countries, only Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa have somehow succeeded in establishing federal political systems, a clear indication that the system itself is still in its rudimentary as far as the larger continent is concerned.

Testing such a system in Somalia is a dangerous undertaking at best and at worst courting a flat out disaster for Somali citizens who speak the same language and practice the same religion.

If other countries with different groupings stuck together for decades with no major inter-communal violence, such as Tanzania, there is no reason why the tribe called Somalia couldn’t co-exist and prosper at the same time.

Somalia is a country made of clans of inter-twisted roots. A family that lives in the northwestern region of Somaliland, for example, can have deep connections with another family in a southern town and vice versa. Somalia is already suffering from the arbitrary separation of families after colonial powers handed over Somalia’s lands to both Kenya and Ethiopia with no regard to ethnicity or religion.

In a word, Somalia does not need a Sykes-Picot-like delineation, the secret agreement in 1916 between Sir Mark Sykes and Francois-Georges Picot. The Anglo-French pact paid scant regard to ethnic and religious groupings in the Middle East, whimsically carving the region into mini-states, and in the process, dividing tribes – and sometimes even one family — among different countries.

The impracticality of the federal system for Somalis is already evident for all to see. Minority communities in Somaliland and Puntland, the two northern regions that formed their own administrations, constantly complain about discrimination, saying that big clans are overlording them.

If the arguments of the pro-federalism camp is accepted at face value, there will be a need in the future to form an administration or a state for every discontented group, because this camp’s main argument is to prevent the center from bullying the peripheries.

Although both Somalialand and Puntland enjoy a relative peace and self-rule, they lack functioning administrations that can deliver more than security. A Somali man or woman wants to travel freely across the country. The citizenry want a strong government that can come to their aid when they run into trouble in foreign countries.

Somalis, being exceedingly a very proud people, don’t want to live under the yoke of foreigners, especially the bullying neighbors.

But let’s not forget one pertinent question: Is the current administration in Mogadishu able to give other Somalis in other parts of the country the hope they desperately need? Can it create a sense of belonging to a country that is one, a nation whose capital city belongs to all, and a country in which all Somalis can believe in Somaliness.

Time will tell.

Abdisamad is analyst with the Nairobi-based Southlink Consultants and a contributor to The Somalia Star